iKnow Delphi 2.0 Country Report Finland

Myllylä, Yrjö & Maurizio Sajeva & Jari Kaivo-oja & Samuli Aho (2011). iKnow Delphi 2.0 National Survey / Country Report Finland. 126 p. iKnow Project, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. FFRC eBOOK 10/2011. <www.iknowfutures.eu>, <http://www.utuonline.fi/sisalto/ajankohtaista/jatteista-tuotettavasta-kaasusta-tarkea-energialahde.html>:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

This report introduces key results concerning the Finland Country Survey of the iKNOW project. iKNOW is a new Blue Sky research and horizon scanning project launched by the European Commis-sion led by Rafael Popper of the University of Manchester. The project includes seven other partners: FFRC/Finland, Z_punkt/Germany, Technology Centre/Czech Republic, RTC North/UK, ICTAF/Israel, Cyber Fox/Czech Republic and Mindcom/Finland.

“Wild Cards (WI) are situations/events with perceived low probability of occurrence but poten-tially high impact if they were to occur. Weak Signals (WE) are unclear observables warning us about the probability of future events (including Wild Cards). They implore us to consider alternative interpretations of an issue’s evolution to gauge its potential impact.” (www.iknowfutures.eu).

The project has involved 12 relevant themes in which wild cards and weak signals were created and tested in Country Surveys: 1) Health, 2) Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology, 3) ICT – Information & communication technologies, 4) Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials & new production technologies, 5) Energy, 6) Environment (including climate change), 7) Transport (including aeronautics), 8) Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities, 9) Space, 10) Security, 11) Capacities, and 12) Nuclear research.

In Finland wild cards and weak signals were sought for and analysed in two themes: Food, Agri-culture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology and Energy.

Wild Cards – Theme: Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology: 1) “A Killer Water Filter”, 2) “Silent Seas”, 3) “Agriculture runs out of phosphor due to algae biofuel production”, 4) “Algae pathogen suddenly destroys new energy foundation of humankind”, 5) “Terrorists take algae production plants to their main targets” Theme Energy: 1) “National energy grid disappears” 2) “Gas from Trash”, 3) “Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets”, 4) “Cheap liquid fuel production from algae replaces oil by 2030”, 5) “Thanks to algae Australia becomes biggest energy producer in the world”

Weak Signals – Theme Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology: 1) Emer-gence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change, 2) Consumption drives market capitalism, not saving, conserving or sparing, 3) Food consumers are steered towards healthier dietary choices, 4) Food markets became investment subject in previous credit crunch, 5) Bees be no more, less food than before. Theme Energy: 1) Many people are willing to pay more to get wind energy, 2) Obama’s goal: One Million e-cars on the US streets by 2015, 3) Use of electric cars enhance national energy, 4) safety Algae production is a good way for carbon caption form atmosphere, 5) There are many new serious attempts to utilize new fossil fuel resources

In this country report we have made use of conventional statistics to describe the main features of Delphi/National Survey data quantitatively. 51 people answered to questions on wild cards and 38 to questions on weak signals. All together respondents in Finland were 89. Finland’s share of all respondents is 21 %. We consider Finnish expert activity very satisfying.

Method: Delphi / National Survey

The Delphi-method is a multi-round iterative expert survey, which includes feedback from panellists between different rounds. In principle it should be anonymous at least in one round. The iKnow project Delphi 2.0 / National Survey does not constitute a Delphi in itself, at least not in the traditional conception. However, the whole iKnow process, including workshops and interviews as well as the National Survey, forms a Delphi process. Looking at interest towards and expertise on a given phenomenon allows us to identify stakeholder groups for each theme.

Data processing

The starting point was a database in Excel format. There were two approaches to process data: SAS/Excel procedure by FFRC and Excel Template procedure by RP/UNIMAN. Both approaches pro-duced statistical figures like Mean, Std. Deviation, etc. The FFRC procedure yielded a slightly greater number and the RP/UNIMAN approach more developed indices. SAS/Excel procedure gives infor-mation by all the data by stakeholder group. In addition, figures of correlation analysis are produced. The SAS/Excel procedure provides, for example, good material to prepare scientific articles. Both ways are useful and help to understand the phenomena better; we can talk about “data-processing triangulation”.

Main results -The Most important Wild Cards (WIs)

The most important wild cards have been selected by ranking the importance of the mean value for the Finnish case. The following wild cards belong to the categories “high” or “critical”: “Universities close as research does not meet the needs of industry”, “Soft ‘EuroLanding’ or ‘Happy End’ in Euro-Land” or “Rapid-Diagnosis-Machines”.

The abovementioned wild cards belong to themes which were not chosen for the analysis at the country level for Finland. Seven wild cards analysed in Finland Country Survey were included in the category “moderate” by their importance at country level:

“A Killer Water Filter”, “National energy grid disappears”, “Gas from Trash”, “Silent Seas”, “Ag-riculture runs out of phosphor due to algae biofuel production”, “Breakthrough in cold fusion leads to renaissance in energy markets” and “Algae pathogen suddenly destroys new energy foundation of humankind”.

Three wild cards in themes chosen for country level analysis in Finland belong in the category “low” (energy WI):

“Cheap liquid fuel production from algae replaces oil by 2030”, “Thanks to algae Australia becomes biggest energy producer in the world” and “Terrorists take algae production plants to their main targets”.

The three last mentioned wild cards were not very relevant from the Finnish point of view because effective algae production is probably not possible in Finland, whilst biomaterial in forest is much more important. Taking into account the role of Finland in the production of phosphate (Siilinjärvi mine and the coming Savukoski Sokli-mine), these wild cards can have some importance also for Finland, but none were included in the category ‘high’.

The most important conclusion is that the ten wild cards chosen for focus or tested on country level in Finland were not “very relevant” but “moderately relevant”. It is also important to pay attention to the wild cards that have been ranked “high” at EU-level, especially: “European Commission scrap research support projects” and “Gas from Trash”.

The Most important Weak Signals (WEs)

The most important Weak Signals (ranking “high” or “critical” in importance at country level) are:
“Care Communities”, “Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change”, “Con-sumption drives market capitalism, not saving, conserving or sparing”, “Many people are willing to pay more to get wind energy” and “Food consumers are steered towards healthier dietary choices”.

Four of the ten wild cards chosen/tested in Energy and Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Bio-technology are included in the category “high”: “Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change”, “Consumption drives market capitalism, not saving, conserving or sparing”, “Many people are willing to pay more to get wind energy” and “Food consumers are steered towards healthier dietary choices”.

Five are included in the category “moderate”: “Food markets became investment subject in previ-ous credit crunch”, “Obama’s goal: One Million e-cars on the US streets by 2015”, “Use of electric cars enhance national energy safety”, “Algae production is a good way for carbon caption form atmosphere”, “Bees be no more, less food than before”.

Only one weak signal was below 2,5 (low importance) at country level (ranking 17th): ”There are many new serious attempts to utilize fossil fuel resources “.

There are differences in importance for some weak signals between country level (Finland) and EU-level. The ten chosen weak signals were evaluated “very relevant” in the Finnish case.

Evaluation of the chosen WI-WEs

There are some wild cards and weak signals whose impact is at least moderate (in this case 3 or more in a scale of 1-5) in Finland, but preparedness of decision makers deal such a wild card low:

Wild Cards/WIs. The “A Killer Water Filter” wild card is very possible one and should de-serve more attention. Its importance to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policy in Finland is moderate according to experts, but high in EU-level. Its likelihood is high both in the short and the long term. The most important ERA (European Research Area)-strategies are “Promoting international cooperation in STI” and “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”. Wild card has potential impact in “Environment & ecosystems”, “Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems”, “Economy”, and “Social welfare”. For example, in Finland the company Kemira is a potential example of how to utilize this wild card and acts as a signal indicating the wild card occurring. “Kemira ensures that wastewater returned to nature is restored to its original purity” (www.kemira.com).

“Gas from Trash”. The production of this wild card is very ‘possible’, and more attention should be paid to it. The preparedness of decision-makers is low. The likelihood of its occurrence is high in the long term. “Cross-national research programmes and priorities” should be developed, by “Strengthening research institutions’ knowledge production”, “Developing world-class research infrastructures and promoting international cooperation” in STI. In Finland a context in which natural gas and gas from trash are combined and distributed in some pipelines already exists in the region of Kouvola (www.gasum.fi and http://www.kymenvesi.fi/). It indicates that in Finland natural gas and gas from Trash (and other biomaterial, like from forest) should be analysed at the same time.

The “Silent Seas” wild card’s importance for STI-policy is “moderate” at country level and “high” at EU-level. The likelihood of occurrence in the short time is “moderate” and in the long-term “high”. The preparedness of decision-makers is “low” both at country and EU-level. The most important strategies are “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”, and “Promoting international cooperation in STI”. This wild card will mainly impact “Environment & ecosystems”, “Social welfare”, and “Policy and governance”.

The “National energy grid disappears” wild card’s importance for STI-policy is “moderate”, its likelihood in the short term is “low”, and in longer-term “moderate”. Preparedness of decision-makers to deal with it is “low” in country and EU-level. The most important strategies are “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”, and “Promoting international cooperation in STI”. This wild card will mainly impact “Physical infrastructure” and secondly “Environment & ecosystems” and “Economy”. In Finland there are some new pilot eco-villages, which are outside the national energy grid, such as ‘Kempeleen ekokortteli’ (http://www.fortel.fi/components/ekokortteli). On Sep-tember 2011 a pilot example of a future village, Tampereen Tulevaisuuskylä (www.tulevaisuukylä.net) was organised in Tampere.

Weak Signals / WEs. “Emergence of new agriculture methods for coping with climate change”: Level of importance for STI policy in country level in Finland is “high (3.78)”, in EU-level “high (4.33).” It has important implications in the future for “Environment & ecosystems” and “Economy”. In Research and Technology Development (RTD)-strategies the most important ones are ““Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”, and “Sharing knowledge”.

“Consumption drives market capitalism, not saving, conserving or sparing”: Level of importance for STI policy in country level in Finland and EU-level is “high”. This weak signal has im-portant implications in the future firstly for “Economy” and secondly for “Environment & ecosystems” and “Social welfare”. In RTD-strategies the most important ones are “Strengthening research institu-tions’ knowledge production” and “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”.

“Many people are willing to pay more to get wind energy”: Level of importance for STI policy in country level in Finland is “high (index 3.56)”, in EU-level “moderate (index 3.44).” It has important implications in the future for “Environment & ecosystems” and “Economy”. Interviewees responded to this signal by stating, for example, that “Renewables are promoted by public policy any-way”, “This is already happening in Europe”, or “Wind energy is creating a minor paradigm change in the field of energy”.

“Food consumers are steered towards healthier dietary choices”: Level of importance for STI policy in country level in Finland and EU-level is “moderate”. This weak signal has important implications in the future for “Social welfare” and “Economy”. In RTD-strategies the most important ones are firstly “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities” and secondly “Strengthening research institutions’ knowledge production” and “Promoting international coopera-tion in STI”.

“Food markets became investment subject in previous credit crunch”: Level of im-portance for STI policy in country level in Finland is “moderate”, in EU-level “high”. The most im-portant implications of his wild card are for “Economy” and secondly for “Security” and “Social wel-fare”. In RTD-strategies the most important are “Sharing knowledge (open access and IP-management etc.), “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”, and “Strengthening research institutions’ knowledge production”.

“Obama’s goal One Million e-cars on the US streets by 2015”: Level of importance for STI policy in country level in Finland and EU-level is “moderate”. It has important implications in the future for “Environment & ecosystems” and secondly for “Science technology & innovation (STI) sys-tems” and “Economy”. In RTD-strategies the most important ones are “Developing cross-national re-search programmes and priorities” and “Sharing knowledge (open access and IP-management etc.). In Finland, Valmet Automotive Inc. located in Uusikaupunki, is a producer of electric cars http://www.valmet-automotive.com).

“Use of electric cars enhance national energy safety”: Level of importance for STI policy in Finland is “moderate” and in EU-level “high”. Important impacts in the future include “Environment & ecosystems” and “Securities.” In RTD-strategies the most important ones are “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities” and “Promoting international cooperation in STI”.

Conclusion

It is essential that policymakers react to the important impacts and effects estimated for the wild cards and weak signals, for example through strategic decision-making in line with Ansoff’s approach. A lack of reaction or a wrong reaction might imply that competitors will take the market. When coupled with an active strategy of decision-making, these wild cards and weak signals may offer significant opportunities.

The results indicate which wild cards and weak signals are of greater importance, provide insight on the aspects policy-makers are not adequately prepared for, and give information that could help find the right policy to adopt in a situation where a given wild card or weak signal would become real. The results can still be considered preliminary, and discussion should continue until a final decision.

According to analysis in this report, the main wild cards for which attention should be paid are “National energy grid disappears”, “Gas from Trash”, “Silent Seas” and “Algae pathogen suddenly de-stroys new energy foundation of humankind” because their importance for science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in Finland (and also in EU-level) is moderate, but preparedness of decision-makers to deal with these is low.

The level of importance for STI-policy of almost all analysed weak signals is “high” or “moderate” in Finland (and also in EU-level). The following ones are of high importance in Finland (and EU-level): “Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change”, “Consumption drives market capitalism, not saving, conserving or sparing”, “Many people are willing to pay more to get wind energy” and “Food consumers are steered towards healthier dietary choices”. The next ones fall into the category “moderate” and it is important for decision-makers to take them into account: “Food markets became investment subject in previous credit crunch”, “Obama’s goal: One Million e-cars on the US streets by 2015”, “Use of electric cars enhance national energy safety”, “Algae production is a good way for carbon caption from atmosphere” and “Bees no more, less food than before”.

It can also be argued that the human cognitive structure, the mind, is not able to analytically handle true wild cards and weak signals, such as the ones presented in this report. In practice this means, among other things, that besides the processed and analyzed wild cards and weak signals, there are still hidden wild cards and weak signals. The focus should be put on a continuous decision-making processes, which would enable proper reactions to those unexpected wild cards and weak signals outside his WI-WE analysis.

When realising expert surveys or Delphi, stakeholder groups are often called to participate. How-ever, they are certainly not independent actors as they respond to particular interests of their sector or their own operational activities. In governance approaches extended peer communities of citizens, associations or so-called juries are often called to take part in order to provide more objectivity. In this iKnow Expert Survey, we can say that ID Group “Other” was independent. In the Finnish case we have more answers from the public than from the private sector.

According to the Finnish National Innovation Strategy (2008) more attention should be paid to demand-driven (or customer-driven) innovations (see Kaivo-oja & Santonen 2010, Kaivo-oja 2011a). In the same way as in Delphi or expert surveys, respondents in this survey were mostly public actors or belonged to the research sector (high education institutions). For this reason, it was not possible to analyze private actors’ expert opinions reliably. According to a demand-driven innovation strategy, more information on market demand and the trends of customer behaviour should be available. This is the reason for possible uncertainties of the present analysis in the description of future possibilities.

The growth of the global economy and its impact on the prices of limited raw materials, such as oil and other minerals, have a great impact on Finland and Northern countries in general. This means, especially for Finland, that technology development in transportation systems (e.g. new cost-savings and other solutions) creates key conditions for the exploitation of Arctic natural resources. For example, these questions could have received better responses if more private representatives, for example in theme Energy, would have been involved in the process. In addition, Finland could play an important role in the development of arctic transport, energy, environmental, agricultural and food technology in the future. In Finland, the Parliamentary Committee for the Future produced a report titled “Russia 2030 based on Contracts” (editors Osmo Kuusi & Hanna Smith & Paula Tiihonen) in 2010. According to the committee “Finland must draft a research and development programme for the development in Finland of Arctic transport, energy and environmental technology”. Such a programme should also include themes on agriculture and food technology with a focus on the Northern Dimension. This would probably constitute a very important step in the vision of an EU Research Programme which would include Finland country targets.