Myllylä, Yrjö & Maurizio Sajeva & Jari Kaivo-oja & Samuli Aho (2011). iKnow Delphi 2.0  Country Report Finland. 104 p. October 2011. iKnow Project, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. < www.iknowfutures.eu>  < http://www.utuonline.fi/sisalto/ajankohtaista/jatteista-tuotettavasta-kaasusta-tarkea-energialahde.html> <http://ffrc.utu.fi/ajankohtaista/iknow.html>

Pages 67-72:

4.3.6   Wild Card “Gas from Trash”

• The wild card “Gas from Trash” is “slightly original”, its level of importance for the STI policy at country level Finland  is “moderate”, while at EU-level it is “high”
• The likelihood of the wild card “Gas from Trash” occuring in the short term is “moderate”, while occurring at longer-term is “high”
• The wild card’s potential impact at country level for Finland and at EU-level is greatest for “Environment & ecosystems, Economy, and Science, technology&innovation(STI)systems”
• The most relevant RTD strategy for this wild card is “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities”
• The level of preparedness of decision makers to deal with this wild card is “low” at country level for Finland and at EU-level.
• According to respondents’ comments, many existing signals, like “High oil price” indicate that such wild card could happen
• To sum up/The conclusions: The production of this wild card “Gas from Trush” is very ‘possible’, and more attention should be paid to it. The preparedness of decision-makers is low. The likelihood of its occurrence is high in the long term. Cross-national research programmes and priorities should be developed by strengthening research institutions’s knowledge production, developing world-class research infrastructures and promoting international cooperation in STI. In Finland a context in which natural gas and gas from trash are combined and distributed in some pipelines already exist in the region of Kouvola. It indicates that in Finland natural gas and gas from Trash (and other biomaterial, like from forest) should be analysed at the same time.

“Gas from Trash” Wild Card description: “The future of factories, which make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, can be different. In the future they may be microscopic, and they might run on the garbage hydrocarbons that are all around us.” (www.iknowfutures.eu).

First reaction, importance and occuring in the timeframes

Wild card “Gas from Trash” is “slightly original”. Its level of importance for STI policy in country level Finland  is “moderate”, at EU-level “high” (Table 32).

Table 32.              Importance of Wild Card “Gas from Trash”.

Likelihood of wild card “Gas from Trash” occuring in the short term is “moderate”, longer-term “high” (Table 33).

Strategies for improving the preparedness for this Wild Card, and level preparedness of decision-makers

The wild card’s potential impact is greater at country level Finland and in the EU-level for “Environment & ecosystems, Economy and  Science, technology&innovation(STI)systems” (see Table 34 and Figure 13).

The most relevant RTD strategies for this wild card are “Developing cross-national research programmes and priorities,” “Strengthening research institutions’ knowledge production,” “World-class research infrastructures,” “Promoting international cooperation in STI,” and “Sharing knowledge.” (Figure 14).

From 16 answerers one (6 %) provided advice on policy issues associated to this wild card. Recommendations were Policy shift, Human resource development, and Greater (international) cooperation. There were no comments to explain the contents of the abovementioned recommendations in more detail.

Level of preparedness of decisionmakers to deal with this wild card in country level Finland and EU-level is “low” (Table 35).

In the comments (box below), we can see that many existing signals indicate that such wild card could happen: European Renewable Strategy, high oil price, amount of trash, recent developments in nanotechnology and bioengineering, and the increasing role of waste energy source.

Interpretation and conclusions

The production of this wild card is very ‘possible’, and more attention should be paid to it. The preparedness of decision-makers is low. The likelihood of its occurrence is high in the long term. Cross-national research programmes and priorities should be developed by strengthening research institutions’ knowledge production, developing world-class research infrastructures and promoting international cooperation in STI. In Finland a context in which natural gas and gas from trash are combined and distributed in some pipelines already exist in the region of Kouvola. It indicates that in Finland natural gas and gas from Trash (and other biomaterial, like from forest) should be analysed at the same time.

Source:

Myllylä, Yrjö & Maurizio Sajeva & Jari Kaivo-oja & Samuli Aho (2011). iKnow Delphi 2.0  Country Report Finland. 104 p. October 2011. iKnow Project, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. < www.iknowfutures.eu>  < http://www.utuonline.fi/sisalto/ajankohtaista/jatteista-tuotettavasta-kaasusta-tarkea-energialahde.html> <http://ffrc.utu.fi/ajankohtaista/iknow.html>

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For more information, blog articles:

• iKnow Delphi 2.0 Country Report Finland

  (Executive Summary)

• iKnow Delphi 2.0 National Survey – Country Report Finland 

  (Part of Executive Summary and Conclusions)

• Maakaasuista tulossa tärkeä energialähde – iKNOW Delphi 2.0/Country Report Finland julkistettu